Humanoid robot shipments to top 700,000 by 2035

LEAD: A new industry forecast predicts that global shipments of humanoid robots will surpass 700,000 units by 2035, signaling a dramatic acceleration in commercial adoption. This projection underscores the rapid maturation of humanoid platforms from research curiosities to viable industrial and service solutions.

BACKGROUND: The forecast, reported by The Engineer, reflects growing confidence in humanoid robotics as labor shortages and automation demands drive investment. While humanoids have historically been limited by cost, reliability, and control complexity, recent advances in AI, actuation, and manufacturing are enabling mass production. Competitors like Tesla Optimus, Figure 02, and Boston Dynamics Atlas are pushing the envelope, but the market remains nascent—shipments in 2024 are estimated at only a few thousand units.

KEY DETAILS: The projection covers all humanoid form factors, including full-size bipedal robots and smaller service-oriented designs. Key enablers include falling component costs (e.g., sensors, motors, batteries) and improved AI for locomotion and manipulation. The report does not break down by manufacturer or application, but industrial tasks such as warehouse picking and assembly are expected to dominate early adoption. By 2035, humanoids could reach price points below $50,000, making them competitive with human labor in certain roles.

From an engineering perspective, the shift to high-volume production will require standardized modular designs and robust safety systems. Actuator technology—particularly high-torque density motors and compliant joints—will be critical. The forecast assumes continued progress in battery energy density (targeting 2+ hours of continuous operation) and real-time control algorithms. Notably, the 700,000 figure represents a compound annual growth rate of over 80% from 2025 levels, implying rapid scaling of manufacturing capacity.

OUTLOOK: For manufacturers and integrators, this forecast signals the need to invest in supply chains for humanoid-specific components and to develop deployment playbooks for factories and warehouses. Research labs should focus on reducing cost and improving reliability rather than just pushing performance boundaries. If realized, 700,000 humanoids by 2035 would represent a transformative shift in automation, potentially displacing millions of workers but also creating new roles in robot supervision and maintenance.

Source: The Engineer